How to use Football Trading Strategies to make money
Football trading strategies are different from pure betting strategies, because they seek to minimise the risk in the bet and lock in profit as quickly as possible.
There are 2 main betting exchanges regularly used by online punters – Betfair and Betdaq. They are very similar in the way that they operate, although Betfair is certainly the larger of the two.
In the betting exchanges, it is possible to play the part of the punter or the bookie. The punter will back a particular outcome in an event and the bookie will lay that event. Click here for our online betting guide for internet punters.
When someone is acting as a trader, they take advantage of the movements in the odds to back and lay the same outcome at different amounts to lock in their profit. This is the same as trading on the stock exchange and some blue chip companies are known to have taken part in betting exchange trading as well as trading on the FTSE or the NASDAQ.
Betting and laying put simply
Simply speaking, you want to try to back an outcome at one price and lay it at a lower price, so ensuring a certain profit whatever the outcome.
Here are the odds on there being more or less than 2.5 goals in a forthcoming match between Tottenham and Crystal Palace from Betfair
|Under 2.5 goals||2.12||2.16|
|Over 2.5 goals||1.86||1.88|
If you think that there are going to be less than 2.5 goals, back the under 2.5 goals market.
Bet £10 and, if you are right, you will win £21.20, making a profit of £11.20.
If you are wrong, you will lose your £10 stake.
Football traders seek to take advantage of the changing prices to guarantee a profit whatever the outcome.
Generally, the longer a game goes without any goals, the odds on having less than 2.5 goals will drop.
So, back under 2.5 goals @ 2.12 before the game starts and if there are no goals in the first 10 minutes or so, the lay odds will have dropped to about 1.85. At that point, you should lay £11.46 on the under 2.5 goals market @ 1.85.
This will mean that whatever the result of the game, you will make a certain profit of £1.46, because the 2 trades have hedged each other.
Confused? Don’t be! This very helpful calculator will let you consider the various outcomes and input different odds and figures. You will be amazed at the simple profits that can be made as long as the market moves in the direction that you anticipate.
The danger is that if there is an early goal, the odds on under 2.5 goals will rise and you may lose the chance of getting a lay price lower than your back price. It is for this reason that people using football betting strategies need to be cool, clam and calculated. Decide on the profit that you are seeking and make sure that you trade out promptly before anything goes “wrong” with the trade.
Laying the Draw as a football trading strategy
Laying the draw is one of the most popular trading strategies in football, because it is simple and easy to operate, but the drawback is that you need to be actually watching the match (or at least following the scores on the internet), because you have to move quickly when the first goal goes in.
The plan is to lay the draw before the game and then, during the game, back the draw at higher odds, thus ensuring a profit.
The first step is to do your research. You are looking for a game where the teams are unlikely to end up with a 0-0 draw, so you want teams with good attackers and poor defenders.
Go to the BBC website for fixtures and then click on the arrow next to the names of the teams to show their previous 5 matches. In the game between Tottenham and Crystal Palace, you can see that they have had no 0-0 draws in the last 5 games, so there is a reasonable change that this goal scoring form will continue.
So before the game, lay the draw at the current odds of 5.3.
Then, when the game begins, you will see the odds in favour of a draw coming down, but don’t panic! As soon as a goal goes in, the odds of a draw will shoot up to above your original lay price. At that point, you should back the draw. Go to the betting calculator to determine how much you should bet depending on the back odds that are available to ensure a profit.
The key thing with this football betting strategy, as will all others, is to make sure that you trade quickly and don’t get caught up by greed. Just take a easy profit and be glad, don’t wait too long as the price rises, because as soon as an equalizing goal goes in, the odds on a draw will tumble and you will lose your chance of trading out profitably.
A more complex description of the laying the draw strategy can be found in the video below
Trading on the Any Unquoted market
This is one of the lesser known football betting strategies, but it can be incredibly successful you choose the right matches.
On Betfair, the Any Unquoted option is in the Correct Score market. You can bet on the likely result at the end of the game, but this is extremely difficult to do, even for seasoned football experts.
Instead, carry out your research as shown above and look for teams who have been involved in low scoring matches. As long as none of the previous 5 results involve a game with more than 3 goals for either side, then you have found a good match to trade on.
The betting exchanges will quote odds for all of the results up to 3-3, but any result beyond that is unquoted.
So, once you have identified the match, place a lay bet on the unquoted score. In the Spurs v Crystal Palace game, the odds of an unquoted score are 6.2, but in some matches they can start even higher. Generally, look for a match where the odds start at about 6 or so. Much less indicates a game where the bookies think there could be goals. Go for games where the teams are fairly evenly matched and avoid top teams playing relegation candidates where goals may be on the cards.
Once the game has started, as long as there are no early goals, the odds on any unquoted score will rise and rise. Don’t leave it too long to make your back bet on any unquoted and you will then trade out for a profit. Again, use the betting calculator to get the right level of your bet to ensure a profit.
This is one of the football trading strategies with the highest strike rate, but be warned, if the goals start flooding in before you are able to trade out for a profit, your liability could be very high and one losing match will wipe out the profits from many winning ones, so be careful with your research and avoid betting on matches from countries with teams that you have never heard of.