Any Unquoted Score Line Trading Disaster
The “Any Unquoted” trade is often a very useful and profitable football trading strategy, but as you will see in this post, it can be unpredictable and very difficult to trade your way back from a poor position.
The strategy is fairly simple. Any unquoted score is a score line beyond 3-3. You can get prices up to 3-3 in the correct score market.
If you think that there will be more than 3 goals for either side, then you can back Any Unquoted (AUQ).
Most matches do not end up AUQ. In fact, only about 10% of matches do, so a good strategy could be to lay AUQ at the start of the game (pre match if possible) and then, as long as there is not a glut of early goals, look to hedge the bet after about 20 or 3o minutes at a considerable profit.
It is not unusual for the AUQ price to double or triple in the first 30 minutes of a game, so there is a tremendous opportunity to trade out at that stage for a guaranteed profit.
The difficulty is that the strategy is high risk and low reward, although the high strike rate should make up for that.
Most matches let you lay the AUQ pre match for between 7 and 15, depending on the form of the teams. This means that if you want to win a tenner, you have to risk at least £70 (allowing for the odds to be 7).
So, of the game goes to plan and the odds rise to say 14, you can hedge bets and you are guaranteed £5 whatever happens.
That is promising of course, but you need this to take place in 14 matches before you have won your £70 potential liability. The danger is that you will lose a game and all those little £5s will be lost as a result of one bad game.
Those bad games do happen from time to time. In the Champions League tie between Zenit St Petersburg and Borussia Dortmund, we laid AUQ at 8.8 pre match. It seemed like a good game to have a sensible score line (ie not AUQ!).
The problem was that Dortmund took a quick lead after just 4 minutes and, a minute later, Marco Reus game the away team a 2 goal advantage. The odds never settled after that. We could have traded out for a loss early on, but thinking that the away team would sit on this lead, we stayed in the game hoping for an increase in the odds after half time.
Zenit did pull a goal back after 57 minutes, but Robert Lewandowski scored twice and the match ended 2-4. The AUQ trade for profit was never available and the whole stake was lost.
We tried to trade out for a smaller loss after Zenit made it 2-3 after 69minutes, but the market was suspended a minute later when Dortmund scored their fourth goal and took the game into Any Unquoted territory.
Prior to this game, we had seen a profitable trading streak of 14 games, but just one loss wiped out all of that profit and leaves a very bad taste in the mouth!
This strategy might work in small doses, but the risk of being undone so easily and chasing your tail for the rest of the match does make it high risk and one to be wary of!