What are the most successful Football Betting Systems?
Every online punter interested in finding a way to beat the bookie needs to have a successful football betting system. This does not guarantee success (see here for risk free betting), but it greatly increases the prospects of making a profitable bet.
This post will look at a variety of winning football betting systems and will consider how easy they are to run and how profitable they are likely to be.
Each system will require you to have an account already open with one of the online bookies so that you can place the bet.
Betting on over 0.5 or 1.5 goals per match.
This strategy is simply trying to spot with games are likely to have at least a goal in the match. You don’t need to determine what the result of the game will be or what the final score will be. To win with this football betting system, you simply need to be confident that the match will not end in a 0-0 draw.
The system is simple, but as with all football betting systems, some discipline is required. As a result of its simplicity and high success rate, the profits are not all that high, but a system, which regularly wins a little is better than one with loses a lot!
First, visit the BBC football fixtures page. This shows all of the forthcoming matches in all of the major leagues and international games.
Then, you locate the match that you are interested in and click on the arrow on the left hand side next to the teams in the game.
This will open up a statistics page showing each team’s last 5 results.
The above match between Newcastle and Manchester City is an example of a good match to bet on. Neither team has been involved in a 0-0 draw in the last 5 games. That indicates that they either have good attackers, poor defenders, or maybe both! It doesn’t really matter to the online punter. What the statistics do show is that if current form is followed, then this match is unlikely to end 0-0 and therefore it is a good candidate to place a bet for over 0.5 goals in the game.
The next step is to go to your online bookie and place the bet. The Paddy Power website is currently offering the following odds on the Newcastle v Manchester City match in the over 0.5 goals market:
The decimal odds here are basically 1.02, so the bookies seem to think that it is almost a certainty that these teams will have at least one goal in the match. If you were to bet £10, you would make a profit of 20p.
Obviously this return on investment is pretty low, but any profit is a good profit surely?
If the return is not enough, the punter can analyse the statistics a little bit more carefully to spot a good bet.
In the example above, 7 out of the previous 10 games have resulted in more than 2 goals being scored, so there is a 70% chance of winning if you bet on the over 1.5 goals market.
Paddy Power are offering the following in this market:
The decimal odds of over 1.5 goals is 1.14, so if you bet £10 that the game will finish with more that 1.5 goals, you will make a £1.40 profit.
You can obviously increase the number of goals that you are backing, but the higher you go, the greater the risk that you will lose. That is why we are comfortable staying with the low profit, but high strike rate of backing the over 0.5 goals market as described above.
Value Football Betting System
The other really successful way of being profitable with online football betting is to adopt a value-based strategy. This system does not rely on a detailed knowledge of the particular teams involved in the game, instead, it requires a good look at the relevant statistics and the odds of being offered by the bookies.
In this system, we are betting on which team will win or draw (the win – draw – win market).
The bookies will offer odds based upon their own assessment of the likely outcome of the game.
Lets use the Newcastle v Manchester City game as an example again.
Paddy Power are offering the following odds on the result:
You can see what their analysts think the result will be in percentage terms by doing the sum in the odds, adding 1 and then dividing 100 by that number. For example:
- Newcastle = (4 / 1) + 1 = 5. Then 100 / 5 = 20% chance of Newcastle winning
- Draw = (3 / 1) + 1 = 4. Then 100/ 4 = 25% chance of a draw.
- Man City = (4 / 6) + 1 = 1.66. Then 100 / 1.66 = 60% chance of Man City winning.
You will note that the above percentages add up to more than 100%. This is how the bookies build the odds to their advantage to try to make sure that they turn a profit whatever the result.
However, they are not always right and there is value to be found. Although the average online punter does not have the same ability to check previous form and statistics as the bookies do, we can take advantage of the internet for advice about the likely results of a football match.
Statarea is probably the most comprehensive, free statistics service online. They provide detailed predictions based upon previous matches between the 2 teams, home and away form and current standings of the teams in the league. These are factored together to produce a helpful prediction of the result in a variety of markets.
They predict the Newcastle v Manchester City match as follows:
You can use these predictions to work out what the fair odds should be.
They think that there is a 44% chance that Newcastle will win. On that basis, the odds should be 2.2 in decimal format or 6/5 in fractional odds.
Therefore, the bookies are undervaluing the chances of a Newcastle win and this is a great opportunity for the online punter to place a bet. You could bet £10 with Paddy Power and make a profit of £40 in a game where Statarea thinks that there is a 44% chance of winning.
This value betting system takes a lot of time to compare prices offered by the bookies and statistical predictions, but it offers a huge opportunity for the punter to beat the bookie by removing the edge that the bookie has in a game where the odds do not support the statistics.
There is a significant chance of losing bets using this system, but the point is not the have a high strike rate of wins, instead we are looking for a high profit rate. In other words, although you may not win all your matches, because you have such good value in the odds offered, you will make a profit in the long run.
As with all football betting systems, it is important to stay focused and objective with your bets and the rewards will become evident after a while.
Test out your football betting systems on paper
Before any real money is risked at a bookie, it is very sensible for a punter to test out the system for a while on paper before actually taking the plunge. Use a notebook to identify the matches that you would bet on and note what your stake and winnings / losses would be. Keep a record of how you do after each game and then after 20 or so games, you will have an idea about whether or not these football betting systems are for you or not.