5 most common novice mistakes in football betting
Bet Champion hopes to assist football gamblers and traders of all experience levels, but this post is to look at the most common novice mistakes in football betting.
We have asked some betting experts and respected names in football trading what they think the rookie errors are and as a result, we hope that the following lists will help you avoid any of these mistakes.
Don’t be too greedy
It is sometimes tempting to back a result with really big odds in the hope that the result will come in and you will win big! You need to remember that the odds were big in the first place, because the online bookies thought that the likelihood of the particular result was low, so high odds were offered.
Football Betting Tips commented,
“I think football gamblers are like any other gamblers, they do not have a true understanding on making profit. The key to betting is to make profit. People always want more and more.
A simple double / treble or even a single would bring back profit. People just like to do these big accumulators trying to hit a big odd’s straight away. Build up and keep in profit is my key to betting.”
So the advice here is to stick to realistic bets and don’t get carried away by looking for 1 huge win, when several small wins are more likely to result in a profit. This comes from a well known provider of football betting tips and is well worth following.
Look for value bets
Obviously, online punters want to concentrate on betting on results that are likely to win, but when selecting your bet, look for value too. This is where the punter is getting an edge on the online bookies. Using one of the free bet no deposit offers may be a good plan here.
So, if Chelsea are playing Cardiff at home, gut instinct and the form book tell you that Chelsea are likely to win. Say that you have calculated that there is a 70% chance that Chelsea will win.
The odds offered by the bookie are 1.30 on a Chelsea win. So if you bet £10, you will win £13, making a £3 profit.
Is this good value? The way to find out is to look at whether this bet would make you a profit if the match was played 100 times.
You bet expect that Chelsea will win 70 times, so you will make a profit of £3 x 70 = £210.
However, you will lose your stake 30 times = £10 x 30 = £300.
So if this match were played 100 times, at those odds you would be £90 worse off. The odds are poor value.
Look for games that offer better value odds by calculating your percentage likelihood of result and then translating that into the “fair odds”. In the example above, 100 / 70 = 1.42. Any bookie offering more than 1.42 on a Chelsea win is offering value odds and should be considered.
The Betting World said that the one of the most common novice mistakes in football betting was,
“not considering the price and betting because “they think it’ll win”. All bets should be price vs % chance of said outcome”
Backing favourites below 1.50
This is linked to some of the comments above, but sometimes we are so sure that a favourite is going to win that we back them at very low odds, which don’t properly reflect the value. When England play in a big match, bookies know that a lot of people will back them even thought the likelihood of a win may not be high. Punters are betting with their hearts, not with their heads. This generally does not lead to betting and winning on a regular basis.
If you have carried out the value research above and the price seems reasonable, then go ahead and back the team. Just don’t assume that because the favourite has a low price, they are sure to win.
Dutch Investor made some useful comments about the most common novice mistakes in football betting. He told us,
“I think it have to be backing favourites below 1.50 . No bankroll management and doing accas of more than 3 teams. Biggest mistakes if you want to be profitable for the long term.”
Manage your bank properly
This will be the subject of a full Bet Champion post soon, but failing to manage your bank properly is certainly a common novice error. Don’t bet the whole bank on one match, because if you do and lose, game over!
You need to have a careful and realistic strategy about how much you are going to bet. Some people bet a fixed percentage of their bank on each bet, no matter what odds are available. So you might bet 5% every time and if you win, the amount bet next time is correspondingly higher (or lower if you lose).
Other punters will have set stakes decided by dividing their bank into points.
There are also complex formulas like the Kelly criteria, which can be used to calculate how much to bet, depending on the odds available, and likelihood of success.
However you manage your bank, you need a system – choose one and stick to it, win or lose. You must not change the system in the middle of a losing run to try and claw back losses, because this hardly ever works. Choose a system and stick to it. As mentioned, Bet Champion will be giving more advice about this soon.
Paul Robinson commented that one of the common novice mistakes in football betting was,
“Over staking. Level stakes or a small difference in stakes from time to time. Don’t ever chase”
Follow your head, not your heart!
Don’t let emotion get in the way when you are betting. Look at each game in a cold and dispassionate way, because you are talking about winning or losing hard earned cash, nothing else.
Backing your own team because you want them to win does not make it any more likely that they will win!
We find that it is best to avoid matches that you have any emotional attachment to. If you back your team and they lose, you will be doubly upset. At the same time, many people have a problem betting against their team, because they feel torn during the game!
Just keep away from those games – there are plenty of others to bet on instead.
Drakey31 said that a one of the common novice mistakes in football betting was,
“betting on your own team.”
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